Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

TUESDAY, 03 MARCH 2009 15:53:35 GMT

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst; John Rivera, Currency Analyst; David Song, Currency Analyst

Euro/US Dollar Monthly Technical Forecast

After posting life-time highs by 1.6040 in July 2008, the market has reversed course sharply to undergo some significant pullbacks reaching 1.2330 (2008 low, October) thus far ahead of the latest multi-month consolidation. It now looks as though a lower top is firmly in place by 1.4720 (December 2008 high) to be confirmed on a break back below 1.2330. Below 1.2330 will open a fresh downside extension towards initial support by 1.2000-1.2130 (psychological barriers/100-month SMA/50% fib retracement of major 0.8230-1.6040 move), and then to the 1.1640, November 2005 lows further down. Only back above February's high by 1.3095 delays bearish structure.
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